Self-Driving Vehicles to Reach 50 Million by 2026
July 16, 2018

By the end of 2026 there will be over 50 million autonomous vehicles on the road, with over 10 million in the US and 15 million in the Far East and China, according to Juniper Research.

In comparison, the global market will account for 1.5 billion vehicles on the road during the same year.

The new research, Autonomous Vehicles & ADAS: Market Trends 2018-2026, found that a confluence of societal shifts, smart city mobility schemes and technology infrastructure will kickstart autonomous vehicle sales. These include softening demand for vehicle ownership driven by the emergence of concepts such as Mobility-as-a-Service, driving safety benefits and establishment of underlying V2X (vehicle-to-anything) communications.

In research released in May, Autonomous Vehicles & ADAS: Readiness Index, Player Positioning & Forecasts 2018-2026, Juniper Research found that the market adoption of AV technologies is set to ramp up in the future, driven by:

■ Competition from the likes of Google, whose focus has been on entirely driverless vehicles.

■ Heavy investments from Volvo, Audi, Daimler and GM; positioning themselves as mobility services firms.

■ Governments enabling firms to test AVs on their roads and invest in smart city infrastructure.

■ Drivers becoming accustomed to ADAS (Advanced Driver Assistance Systems).

Singapore & US Lead Autonomous Vehicle Industry

As part of the new research, Juniper evaluated 20 countries according to their readiness for autonomous vehicles, analyzing each nation's enthusiasm for autonomous vehicles and the likelihood of autonomous vehicles operating in the country. It considered regulatory policies, trials in operation, digital and city infrastructure in place and the participation of local technology firms and organizations.

Leading nations in Juniper’s Autonomous Vehicle Country Readiness Index 2018 are:

■ United States
■ Singapore
■ Japan
■ United Kingdom
■ South Korea
■ Netherlands
■ Malaysia
■ India
■ China
■ France

Research author Michael Larner added: “The US has all the key ingredients for autonomous vehicles to operate at scale. Federal and local authorities supporting AV trials, Silicon Valley and universities spawn firms that can deliver the technology, many local competitors are introducing driverless technologies plus the car remains vital for commuting and leisure travel.”

2019: The Milestone Year

The new research found that OEMs will incrementally add driverless technologies to newer vehicle models. Juniper Research predicts that 2019 will be a milestone year with the launch of vehicles where the driver’s full attention is no longer required.

Juniper Research also claims that the US and China will be the key regions to watch as new policies and guidelines for autonomous vehicles flourish; and combined, will account for nearly 65% of global autonomous vehicles sold in 2019.

ADAS Adoption Reach 100 Million Vehicles by 2020

In the May report, Juniper estimates that 45 million on-road vehicles will have some form of ADAS functionality by the end of 2018, with adoption reaching 100 million by 2020. Additionally, with luxury vehicles incorporating semi-autonomous technologies, such as the new Audi A8, the market will further evolve to full automation, while shifting its focus to delivering a complete driver experience.

Research author Michael Larner explained: “The introduction of fully autonomous technologies, with some vehicles no longer having steering wheels and pedals, will mean that the focus will shift from how drivers get from A-B to how the occupants use the journey time.”